Bo Nix vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Bo Nix this week, and it isn't close: 3.1 projected points separate them (14.4 vs 11.3).
Bo Nix faces LA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces MIN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bo Nix, and it isn't close: 42.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-17.6 vs -59.8).
The draft market agrees: Bo Nix goes first at ADP 109.6 vs 130.9 for Baker Mayfield.
| Bo NixDEN | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LA | MIN | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 14.4 | 11.3 | Nix +3.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #28 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 253.8 | 211.6 | Nix +42.2 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 12.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -17.6 | -59.8 | Nix +42.2 |
| Overall rank | #93 | #138 | Nix by 45 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 130.9 | Mayfield +21.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 10 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Baker Mayfield in Week 3?
Start Bo Nix this week, and it isn't close: 3.1 projected points separate them (14.4 vs 11.3).
Should I draft Bo Nix or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 253.8 fantasy points with -17.6 value over replacement, vs 211.6 points and -59.8 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).