Head to head · QB · 2026
Bo Nix vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Bo Nix
The model takes Bo Nix, and it isn't close: 21.4 points of value over replacement separate them (-22.4 vs -43.8).
The draft market agrees: Bo Nix goes first at ADP 118.1 vs 129.0 for Baker Mayfield.
Health note: Bo Nix carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Bo Nix | Baker Mayfield | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | DEN | TAM | |
| Overall rank | #106 | #130 | Nix by 24 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 240.8 | 219.4 | Nix +21.4 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -22.4 | -43.8 | Nix +21.4 |
| Market ADP | 118.1 | 129.0 | Mayfield +10.9 cheaper |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I draft Bo Nix or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 240.8 fantasy points with -22.4 value over replacement, vs 219.4 points and -43.8 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).