Bo Nix vs Kyler Murray
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Bo Nix this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (14.1 vs 12.6).
Bo Nix faces LAC, the 26th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kyler Murray faces NO, the 20th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bo Nix, and it isn't close: 38.1 points of value over replacement separate them (-19.2 vs -57.3).
The draft market agrees: Bo Nix goes first at ADP 109.6 vs 129.2 for Kyler Murray.
| Bo NixDEN | Kyler MurrayMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LAC | NO | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.1 | 12.6 | Nix +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #26 | #20 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 253.8 | 215.7 | Nix +38.1 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 12.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -19.2 | -57.3 | Nix +38.1 |
| Overall rank | #95 | #134 | Nix by 39 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 129.2 | Murray +19.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Kyler Murray in Week 5?
Start Bo Nix this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (14.1 vs 12.6).
Should I draft Bo Nix or Kyler Murray in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 253.8 fantasy points with -19.2 value over replacement, vs 215.7 points and -57.3 for Kyler Murray (QB, PPR).