Bo Nix vs Jared Goff
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Jared Goff this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.7 projected points (16.7 vs 14.1).
Jared Goff faces ARI, the 1st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces LAC, the 26th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Bo Nix ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bo Nix: a clear but modest edge of 11.2 points of value over replacement (-19.2 vs -30.4).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jared Goff first (ADP 101.8 vs 109.6). If the model is right, Bo Nix is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Bo NixDEN | Jared GoffDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LAC | ARI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.1 | 16.7 | Goff +2.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #26 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 253.8 | 242.6 | Nix +11.2 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 14.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -19.2 | -30.4 | Nix +11.2 |
| Overall rank | #95 | #105 | Nix by 10 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 101.8 | Nix +7.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Jared Goff in Week 5?
Start Jared Goff this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.7 projected points (16.7 vs 14.1).
Should I draft Bo Nix or Jared Goff in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 253.8 fantasy points with -19.2 value over replacement, vs 242.6 points and -30.4 for Jared Goff (QB, PPR).