Bo Nix vs Tyler Shough
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Bo Nix this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (14.8 vs 13.2).
Bo Nix faces SF, the 20th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Tyler Shough faces ATL, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bo Nix, and it isn't close: 45.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-17.1 vs -62.3).
The draft market agrees: Bo Nix goes first at ADP 109.6 vs 137.8 for Tyler Shough.
| Bo NixDEN | Tyler ShoughNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SF | ATL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.8 | 13.2 | Nix +1.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #20 | #7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 253.8 | 208.5 | Nix +45.2 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 12.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -17.1 | -62.3 | Nix +45.2 |
| Overall rank | #93 | #139 | Nix by 46 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 137.8 | Shough +28.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Tyler Shough in Week 4?
Start Bo Nix this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (14.8 vs 13.2).
Should I draft Bo Nix or Tyler Shough in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 253.8 fantasy points with -17.1 value over replacement, vs 208.5 points and -62.3 for Tyler Shough (QB, PPR).