Jared Goff vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Jared Goff this week, and it isn't close: 3.0 projected points separate them (16.7 vs 13.7).
Jared Goff faces ARI, the 1st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces DAL, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jared Goff, and it isn't close: 36.0 points of value over replacement separate them (-30.4 vs -66.4).
The draft market agrees: Jared Goff goes first at ADP 101.8 vs 130.9 for Baker Mayfield.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jared GoffDET | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | ARI | DAL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.7 | 13.7 | Goff +3.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #1 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 242.6 | 206.6 | Goff +36.0 pts |
| Points per game | 14.3 | 12.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -30.4 | -66.4 | Goff +36.0 |
| Overall rank | #105 | #148 | Goff by 43 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 101.8 | 130.9 | Mayfield +29.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield in Week 5?
Start Jared Goff this week, and it isn't close: 3.0 projected points separate them (16.7 vs 13.7).
Should I draft Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Jared Goff. He projects 242.6 fantasy points with -30.4 value over replacement, vs 206.6 points and -66.4 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).