Jared Goff vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB17
Jared Goff
235.7
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB19
Baker Mayfield
219.4
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Jared Goff, and it isn't close: 16.3 points of value over replacement separate them (-27.5 vs -43.8).
The draft market agrees: Jared Goff goes first at ADP 99.8 vs 129.2 for Baker Mayfield.
| Jared GoffDET | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.7 | 219.4 | Goff +16.3 pts |
| Points per game | 13.9 | 12.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -27.5 | -43.8 | Goff +16.3 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #129 | Goff by 20 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 99.8 | 129.2 | Mayfield +29.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 |
Should I draft Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Jared Goff. He projects 235.7 fantasy points with -27.5 value over replacement, vs 219.4 points and -43.8 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).