Jared Goff vs Kyler Murray
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Jared Goff this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (15.7 vs 14.4).
Jared Goff faces NYJ, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kyler Murray faces TB, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jared Goff, and it isn't close: 26.9 points of value over replacement separate them (-28.8 vs -55.7).
The draft market agrees: Jared Goff goes first at ADP 101.8 vs 129.2 for Kyler Murray.
| Jared GoffDET | Kyler MurrayMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | NYJ | TB | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 15.7 | 14.4 | Goff +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #5 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 242.6 | 215.7 | Goff +26.9 pts |
| Points per game | 14.3 | 12.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.8 | -55.7 | Goff +26.9 |
| Overall rank | #103 | #133 | Goff by 30 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 101.8 | 129.2 | Murray +27.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 6 |
Should I start Jared Goff or Kyler Murray in Week 3?
Start Jared Goff this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (15.7 vs 14.4).
Should I draft Jared Goff or Kyler Murray in 2026 fantasy football?
Jared Goff. He projects 242.6 fantasy points with -28.8 value over replacement, vs 215.7 points and -55.7 for Kyler Murray (QB, PPR).