Baker Mayfield vs Kyler Murray
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB19
Baker Mayfield
219.4
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB20
Kyler Murray
207.8
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Baker Mayfield: a clear but modest edge of 11.7 points of value over replacement (-43.8 vs -55.4).
The draft market agrees: Baker Mayfield goes first at ADP 129.2 vs 133.3 for Kyler Murray.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Kyler MurrayMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 219.4 | 207.8 | Mayfield +11.7 pts |
| Points per game | 12.9 | 12.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -43.8 | -55.4 | Mayfield +11.7 |
| Overall rank | #129 | #142 | Mayfield by 13 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | 129.2 | 133.3 | Murray +4.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 |
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 219.4 fantasy points with -43.8 value over replacement, vs 207.8 points and -55.4 for Kyler Murray (QB, PPR).