Kyler Murray vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Baker Mayfield this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (13.7 vs 12.6).
Baker Mayfield faces DAL, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kyler Murray faces NO, the 20th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Kyler Murray ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kyler Murray: a clear but modest edge of 9.1 points of value over replacement (-57.3 vs -66.4).
The draft market agrees: Kyler Murray goes first at ADP 129.2 vs 130.9 for Baker Mayfield.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Kyler MurrayMIN | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | NO | DAL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 12.6 | 13.7 | Mayfield +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #20 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 215.7 | 206.6 | Murray +9.1 pts |
| Points per game | 12.7 | 12.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -57.3 | -66.4 | Murray +9.1 |
| Overall rank | #134 | #148 | Murray by 14 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 129.2 | 130.9 | Mayfield +1.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield in Week 5?
Start Baker Mayfield this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (13.7 vs 12.6).
Should I draft Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Kyler Murray. He projects 215.7 fantasy points with -57.3 value over replacement, vs 206.6 points and -66.4 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).