Kyler Murray vs Tyler Shough
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Kyler Murray this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.0 projected points (14.4 vs 12.4).
Kyler Murray faces TB, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Tyler Shough faces LV, the 13th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kyler Murray: a clear but modest edge of 7.1 points of value over replacement (-55.7 vs -62.9).
The draft market agrees: Kyler Murray goes first at ADP 129.2 vs 137.8 for Tyler Shough.
| Kyler MurrayMIN | Tyler ShoughNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | TB | LV | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 14.4 | 12.4 | Murray +2.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 215.7 | 208.5 | Murray +7.1 pts |
| Points per game | 12.7 | 12.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -55.7 | -62.9 | Murray +7.1 |
| Overall rank | #133 | #140 | Murray by 7 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 129.2 | 137.8 | Shough +8.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 8 |
Should I start Kyler Murray or Tyler Shough in Week 3?
Start Kyler Murray this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.0 projected points (14.4 vs 12.4).
Should I draft Kyler Murray or Tyler Shough in 2026 fantasy football?
Kyler Murray. He projects 215.7 fantasy points with -55.7 value over replacement, vs 208.5 points and -62.9 for Tyler Shough (QB, PPR).