Tyler Shough vs Josh Allen
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Josh Allen this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (19.2 vs 18.1).
Josh Allen faces NE, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Tyler Shough faces ATL, the 20th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tyler Shough ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyler Shough: a clear but modest edge of 8.3 points of value over replacement (49.0 vs 40.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Josh Allen first (ADP 32.9 vs 137.8). If the model is right, Tyler Shough is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tyler ShoughNOR | Josh AllenBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ATL | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 18.1 | 19.2 | Allen +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #20 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 317.7 | 309.4 | Shough +8.3 pts |
| Points per game | 18.7 | 18.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 49.0 | 40.6 | Shough +8.3 |
| Overall rank | #34 | #39 | Shough by 5 |
| Position rank | QB5 | QB7 | |
| Market ADP | 137.8 | 32.9 | Shough +104.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 7 |
Should I start Tyler Shough or Josh Allen in Week 4?
Start Josh Allen this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (19.2 vs 18.1).
Should I draft Tyler Shough or Josh Allen in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Shough. He projects 317.7 fantasy points with 49.0 value over replacement, vs 309.4 points and 40.6 for Josh Allen (QB, PPR).