Tyler Shough vs Matthew Stafford
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Matthew Stafford by 0.4 projected points (18.5 vs 18.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Matthew Stafford faces PHI, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Tyler Shough faces ATL, the 20th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tyler Shough ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Tyler Shough by 1.3 points of value over replacement (49.0 vs 47.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Matthew Stafford first (ADP 74.2 vs 137.8). If the model is right, Tyler Shough is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Tyler ShoughNOR | Matthew StaffordLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ATL | PHI | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 18.1 | 18.5 | Stafford +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #20 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 317.7 | 316.4 | Shough +1.3 pts |
| Points per game | 18.7 | 18.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 49.0 | 47.6 | Shough +1.3 |
| Overall rank | #34 | #37 | Shough by 3 |
| Position rank | QB5 | QB6 | |
| Market ADP | 137.8 | 74.2 | Shough +63.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 11 |
Should I start Tyler Shough or Matthew Stafford in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Matthew Stafford by 0.4 projected points (18.5 vs 18.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tyler Shough or Matthew Stafford in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Shough. He projects 317.7 fantasy points with 49.0 value over replacement, vs 316.4 points and 47.6 for Matthew Stafford (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.