Matthew Stafford vs Dak Prescott
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
QB8
Matthew Stafford
282.1
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
QB9
Dak Prescott
274.8
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Matthew Stafford: a clear but modest edge of 7.4 points of value over replacement (30.3 vs 23.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 65.1 vs 77.1). If the model is right, Matthew Stafford is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 282.1 | 274.8 | Stafford +7.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.6 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 30.3 | 23.0 | Stafford +7.4 |
| Overall rank | #46 | #51 | Stafford by 5 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB9 | |
| Market ADP | 77.1 | 65.1 | Stafford +12.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 14 |
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 282.1 fantasy points with 30.3 value over replacement, vs 274.8 points and 23.0 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).