Matthew Stafford vs Dak Prescott
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dak Prescott by 0.1 projected points (20.3 vs 20.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dak Prescott faces GB, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Matthew Stafford faces ARI, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Matthew Stafford ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 6, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Matthew Stafford: a clear but modest edge of 11.3 points of value over replacement (39.2 vs 27.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 65.3 vs 74.2). If the model is right, Matthew Stafford is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | ARI | GB | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 20.2 | 20.3 | Prescott +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #10 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 327.8 | 316.4 | Stafford +11.3 pts |
| Points per game | 19.3 | 18.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 39.2 | 27.9 | Stafford +11.3 |
| Overall rank | #39 | #48 | Stafford by 9 |
| Position rank | QB3 | QB6 | |
| Market ADP | 74.2 | 65.3 | Stafford +8.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 14 |
Should I start Matthew Stafford or Dak Prescott in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dak Prescott by 0.1 projected points (20.3 vs 20.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 327.8 fantasy points with 39.2 value over replacement, vs 316.4 points and 27.9 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).