Dak Prescott vs Josh Allen
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dak Prescott by 0.7 projected points (21.0 vs 20.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dak Prescott faces TB, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Josh Allen faces LA, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dak Prescott: a clear but modest edge of 7.0 points of value over replacement (35.7 vs 28.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Josh Allen first (ADP 32.9 vs 65.3). If the model is right, Dak Prescott is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Dak PrescottDAL | Josh AllenBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TB | LA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 21.0 | 20.3 | Prescott +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #3 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 320.9 | 313.9 | Prescott +7.0 pts |
| Points per game | 18.9 | 18.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 35.7 | 28.7 | Prescott +7.0 |
| Overall rank | #41 | #44 | Prescott by 3 |
| Position rank | QB3 | QB6 | |
| Market ADP | 65.3 | 32.9 | Prescott +32.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 7 |
Should I start Dak Prescott or Josh Allen in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dak Prescott by 0.7 projected points (21.0 vs 20.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dak Prescott or Josh Allen in 2026 fantasy football?
Dak Prescott. He projects 320.9 fantasy points with 35.7 value over replacement, vs 313.9 points and 28.7 for Josh Allen (QB, PPR).