Jared Goff vs Dak Prescott
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 0.0 projected points (21.7 vs 21.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jared Goff faces CAR, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces HOU, the 1st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 3.0 points of value over replacement (58.2 vs 55.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dak Prescott first (ADP 65.3 vs 101.8). If the model is right, Jared Goff is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jared GoffDET | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CAR | HOU | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 21.7 | 21.6 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 326.9 | 324.0 | Goff +3.0 pts |
| Points per game | 19.2 | 19.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 58.2 | 55.2 | Goff +3.0 |
| Overall rank | #24 | #26 | Goff by 2 |
| Position rank | QB2 | QB3 | |
| Market ADP | 101.8 | 65.3 | Goff +36.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 14 |
Should I start Jared Goff or Dak Prescott in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jared Goff by 0.0 projected points (21.7 vs 21.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jared Goff or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Jared Goff. He projects 326.9 fantasy points with 58.2 value over replacement, vs 324.0 points and 55.2 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.