Matthew Stafford vs Josh Allen
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Allen by 0.6 projected points (19.2 vs 18.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Josh Allen faces NE, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Matthew Stafford faces PHI, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Matthew Stafford ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Matthew Stafford: a clear but modest edge of 7.0 points of value over replacement (47.6 vs 40.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Josh Allen first (ADP 32.9 vs 74.2). If the model is right, Matthew Stafford is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Josh AllenBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | PHI | NE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 18.5 | 19.2 | Allen +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #17 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 316.4 | 309.4 | Stafford +7.0 pts |
| Points per game | 18.6 | 18.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 47.6 | 40.6 | Stafford +7.0 |
| Overall rank | #37 | #39 | Stafford by 2 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB7 | |
| Market ADP | 74.2 | 32.9 | Stafford +41.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 3 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Allen by 0.6 projected points (19.2 vs 18.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 316.4 fantasy points with 47.6 value over replacement, vs 309.4 points and 40.6 for Josh Allen (QB, PPR).