Bryce Young vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bryce Young by 0.5 projected points (17.7 vs 17.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Bryce Young faces DET, the 9th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces CIN, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bryce Young: a clear but modest edge of 7.5 points of value over replacement (21.3 vs 13.8).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Trevor Lawrence first (ADP 91.1 vs 168.2). If the model is right, Bryce Young is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Bryce YoungCAR | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | DET | CIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 17.7 | 17.2 | Young +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #9 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 290.0 | 282.5 | Young +7.5 pts |
| Points per game | 17.1 | 16.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 21.3 | 13.8 | Young +7.5 |
| Overall rank | #47 | #56 | Young by 9 |
| Position rank | QB8 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 168.2 | 91.1 | Young +77.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 7 |
Should I start Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bryce Young by 0.5 projected points (17.7 vs 17.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Bryce Young. He projects 290.0 fantasy points with 21.3 value over replacement, vs 282.5 points and 13.8 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).