Tyler Shough vs Sam Darnold
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Tyler Shough this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (11.8 vs 10.6).
Tyler Shough faces MIN, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Sam Darnold faces SF, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyler Shough, and it isn't close: 28.4 points of value over replacement separate them (-64.5 vs -92.8).
The draft market agrees: Tyler Shough goes first at ADP 137.8 vs 144.4 for Sam Darnold.
| Tyler ShoughNOR | Sam DarnoldSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIN | SF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 11.8 | 10.6 | Shough +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #22 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 208.5 | 180.2 | Shough +28.4 pts |
| Points per game | 12.3 | 10.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -64.5 | -92.8 | Shough +28.4 |
| Overall rank | #144 | #180 | Shough by 36 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | 137.8 | 144.4 | Darnold +6.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 11 |
Should I start Tyler Shough or Sam Darnold in Week 5?
Start Tyler Shough this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (11.8 vs 10.6).
Should I draft Tyler Shough or Sam Darnold in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Shough. He projects 208.5 fantasy points with -64.5 value over replacement, vs 180.2 points and -92.8 for Sam Darnold (QB, PPR).