Baker Mayfield vs Sam Darnold
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.1 projected points (11.5 vs 11.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Sam Darnold faces WAS, the 7th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces MIN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Baker Mayfield ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Baker Mayfield, and it isn't close: 31.4 points of value over replacement separate them (-59.8 vs -91.2).
The draft market agrees: Baker Mayfield goes first at ADP 130.9 vs 144.4 for Sam Darnold.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Sam DarnoldSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | MIN | WAS | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 11.3 | 11.5 | Darnold +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #7 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 211.6 | 180.2 | Mayfield +31.4 pts |
| Points per game | 12.4 | 10.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.8 | -91.2 | Mayfield +31.4 |
| Overall rank | #138 | #175 | Mayfield by 37 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | 144.4 | Darnold +13.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.1 projected points (11.5 vs 11.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 211.6 fantasy points with -59.8 value over replacement, vs 180.2 points and -91.2 for Sam Darnold (QB, PPR).