Baker Mayfield vs Tyler Shough
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Tyler Shough this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (12.4 vs 11.3).
Tyler Shough faces LV, the 13th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces MIN, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Baker Mayfield ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 3.1 points of value over replacement (-59.8 vs -62.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Baker Mayfield goes first at ADP 130.9 vs 137.8 for Tyler Shough.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Tyler ShoughNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | MIN | LV | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 11.3 | 12.4 | Shough +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 211.6 | 208.5 | Mayfield +3.1 pts |
| Points per game | 12.4 | 12.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.8 | -62.9 | Mayfield +3.1 |
| Overall rank | #138 | #140 | Mayfield by 2 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | 137.8 | Shough +6.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or Tyler Shough in Week 3?
Start Tyler Shough this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (12.4 vs 11.3).
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Tyler Shough in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 211.6 fantasy points with -59.8 value over replacement, vs 208.5 points and -62.9 for Tyler Shough (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.