Terrance Ferguson vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.5 projected points (5.5 vs 5.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Terrance Ferguson faces PHI, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Terrance Ferguson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Terrance Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 6.3 points of value over replacement (-89.7 vs -96.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Terrance Ferguson carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Terrance FergusonLAR | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | PHI | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.0 | 5.5 | Gesicki +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #22 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 88.7 | 82.4 | Ferguson +6.3 pts |
| Points per game | 5.2 | 4.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -89.7 | -96.0 | Ferguson +6.3 |
| Overall rank | #169 | #197 | Ferguson by 28 |
| Position rank | TE25 | TE27 | |
| Market ADP | 167.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | IR | None |
Should I start Terrance Ferguson or Mike Gesicki in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.5 projected points (5.5 vs 5.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Terrance Ferguson or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
Terrance Ferguson. He projects 88.7 fantasy points with -89.7 value over replacement, vs 82.4 points and -96.0 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR).