Terrance Ferguson vs Dawson Knox
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Terrance Ferguson by 0.0 projected points (5.6 vs 5.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Terrance Ferguson faces DEN, the 17th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dawson Knox faces LAC, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Terrance Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 10.4 points of value over replacement (-82.8 vs -93.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Terrance FergusonLAR | Dawson KnoxBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | DEN | LAC | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 5.6 | 5.6 | Even |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #17 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 95.6 | 85.2 | Ferguson +10.4 pts |
| Points per game | 5.6 | 5.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -82.8 | -93.3 | Ferguson +10.4 |
| Overall rank | #161 | #185 | Ferguson by 24 |
| Position rank | TE24 | TE27 | |
| Market ADP | 167.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Terrance Ferguson or Dawson Knox in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Terrance Ferguson by 0.0 projected points (5.6 vs 5.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Terrance Ferguson or Dawson Knox in 2026 fantasy football?
Terrance Ferguson. He projects 95.6 fantasy points with -82.8 value over replacement, vs 85.2 points and -93.3 for Dawson Knox (TE, PPR).