Darren Waller vs Dawson Knox
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Dawson Knox this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (5.6 vs 4.5).
Dawson Knox faces LAC, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces KC, the 32nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Darren Waller ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Darren Waller: a clear but modest edge of 5.3 points of value over replacement (-88.0 vs -93.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Darren WallerMIA | Dawson KnoxBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | KC | LAC | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 4.5 | 5.6 | Knox +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #32 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 90.4 | 85.2 | Waller +5.3 pts |
| Points per game | 5.3 | 5.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.0 | -93.3 | Waller +5.3 |
| Overall rank | #169 | #185 | Waller by 16 |
| Position rank | TE25 | TE27 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 7 |
Should I start Darren Waller or Dawson Knox in Week 3?
Start Dawson Knox this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (5.6 vs 4.5).
Should I draft Darren Waller or Dawson Knox in 2026 fantasy football?
Darren Waller. He projects 90.4 fantasy points with -88.0 value over replacement, vs 85.2 points and -93.3 for Dawson Knox (TE, PPR).