Terrance Ferguson vs Darren Waller
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Terrance Ferguson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (5.6 vs 4.5).
Terrance Ferguson faces DEN, the 17th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces KC, the 32nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Terrance Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 5.2 points of value over replacement (-82.8 vs -88.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Terrance FergusonLAR | Darren WallerMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | DEN | KC | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 5.6 | 4.5 | Ferguson +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #17 | #32 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 95.6 | 90.4 | Ferguson +5.2 pts |
| Points per game | 5.6 | 5.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -82.8 | -88.0 | Ferguson +5.2 |
| Overall rank | #161 | #169 | Ferguson by 8 |
| Position rank | TE24 | TE25 | |
| Market ADP | 167.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Terrance Ferguson or Darren Waller in Week 3?
Start Terrance Ferguson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (5.6 vs 4.5).
Should I draft Terrance Ferguson or Darren Waller in 2026 fantasy football?
Terrance Ferguson. He projects 95.6 fantasy points with -82.8 value over replacement, vs 90.4 points and -88.0 for Darren Waller (TE, PPR).