Brenton Strange vs Terrance Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brenton Strange by 0.9 projected points (6.1 vs 5.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brenton Strange faces PHI, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Terrance Ferguson faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Brenton Strange, and it isn't close: 17.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-72.5 vs -89.7).
The draft market agrees: Brenton Strange goes first at ADP 162.8 vs 167.1 for Terrance Ferguson.
Health note: Terrance Ferguson carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Brenton StrangeJAX | Terrance FergusonLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | BUF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 6.1 | 5.2 | Strange +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #23 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 105.9 | 88.7 | Strange +17.2 pts |
| Points per game | 6.2 | 5.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -72.5 | -89.7 | Strange +17.2 |
| Overall rank | #152 | #170 | Strange by 18 |
| Position rank | TE22 | TE25 | |
| Market ADP | 162.8 | 167.1 | Ferguson +4.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start Brenton Strange or Terrance Ferguson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brenton Strange by 0.9 projected points (6.1 vs 5.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brenton Strange or Terrance Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Brenton Strange. He projects 105.9 fantasy points with -72.5 value over replacement, vs 88.7 points and -89.7 for Terrance Ferguson (TE, PPR).