Brenton Strange vs AJ Barner
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brenton Strange by 0.8 projected points (6.1 vs 5.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brenton Strange faces PHI, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. AJ Barner faces SF, the 20th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Brenton Strange, and it isn't close: 15.5 points of value over replacement separate them (-72.5 vs -88.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Brenton StrangeJAX | AJ BarnerSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | SF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 6.1 | 5.2 | Strange +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #23 | #20 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 105.9 | 90.4 | Strange +15.5 pts |
| Points per game | 6.2 | 5.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -72.5 | -88.0 | Strange +15.5 |
| Overall rank | #152 | #166 | Strange by 14 |
| Position rank | TE22 | TE24 | |
| Market ADP | 162.8 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 |
Should I start Brenton Strange or AJ Barner in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brenton Strange by 0.8 projected points (6.1 vs 5.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brenton Strange or AJ Barner in 2026 fantasy football?
Brenton Strange. He projects 105.9 fantasy points with -72.5 value over replacement, vs 90.4 points and -88.0 for AJ Barner (TE, PPR).