Terrance Ferguson vs AJ Barner
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Terrance Ferguson by 1.7 points of value over replacement (-88.3 vs -90.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take AJ Barner first (ADP 158.9 vs 162.8). If the model is right, Terrance Ferguson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Terrance Ferguson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Terrance FergusonLAR | AJ BarnerSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 91.9 | 90.2 | Ferguson +1.7 pts |
| Points per game | 5.4 | 5.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.3 | -90.0 | Ferguson +1.7 |
| Overall rank | #186 | #192 | Ferguson by 6 |
| Position rank | TE25 | TE26 | |
| Market ADP | 162.8 | 158.9 | Ferguson +3.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I draft Terrance Ferguson or AJ Barner in 2026 fantasy football?
Terrance Ferguson. He projects 91.9 fantasy points with -88.3 value over replacement, vs 90.2 points and -90.0 for AJ Barner (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.