AJ Barner vs Terrance Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.0 projected points (5.2 vs 5.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
AJ Barner faces SF, the 20th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Terrance Ferguson faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 1.7 points of value over replacement (-88.0 vs -89.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Terrance Ferguson carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| AJ BarnerSEA | Terrance FergusonLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | SF | BUF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 5.2 | 5.2 | Even |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #20 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 90.4 | 88.7 | Barner +1.7 pts |
| Points per game | 5.3 | 5.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.0 | -89.7 | Barner +1.7 |
| Overall rank | #166 | #170 | Barner by 4 |
| Position rank | TE24 | TE25 | |
| Market ADP | - | 167.1 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start AJ Barner or Terrance Ferguson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.0 projected points (5.2 vs 5.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft AJ Barner or Terrance Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
AJ Barner. He projects 90.4 fantasy points with -88.0 value over replacement, vs 88.7 points and -89.7 for Terrance Ferguson (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.