AJ Barner vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.0 projected points (5.5 vs 5.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
AJ Barner faces LAC, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes AJ Barner: a clear but modest edge of 8.0 points of value over replacement (-88.0 vs -96.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| AJ BarnerSEA | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LAC | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.5 | 5.5 | Even |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 90.4 | 82.4 | Barner +8.0 pts |
| Points per game | 5.3 | 4.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.0 | -96.0 | Barner +8.0 |
| Overall rank | #165 | #197 | Barner by 32 |
| Position rank | TE24 | TE27 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start AJ Barner or Mike Gesicki in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.0 projected points (5.5 vs 5.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft AJ Barner or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
AJ Barner. He projects 90.4 fantasy points with -88.0 value over replacement, vs 82.4 points and -96.0 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR).