T.J. Hockenson vs AJ Barner
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start T.J. Hockenson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (7.4 vs 6.2).
T.J. Hockenson faces TB, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. AJ Barner faces WAS, the 6th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes T.J. Hockenson, and it isn't close: 17.5 points of value over replacement separate them (-65.2 vs -82.7).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| T.J. HockensonMIN | AJ BarnerSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | TB | WAS | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 7.4 | 6.2 | Hockenson +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 113.2 | 95.8 | Hockenson +17.5 pts |
| Points per game | 6.7 | 5.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -65.2 | -82.7 | Hockenson +17.5 |
| Overall rank | #144 | #160 | Hockenson by 16 |
| Position rank | TE20 | TE23 | |
| Market ADP | 162.0 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 11 |
Should I start T.J. Hockenson or AJ Barner in Week 3?
Start T.J. Hockenson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (7.4 vs 6.2).
Should I draft T.J. Hockenson or AJ Barner in 2026 fantasy football?
T.J. Hockenson. He projects 113.2 fantasy points with -65.2 value over replacement, vs 95.8 points and -82.7 for AJ Barner (TE, PPR).