Darren Waller vs Cole Kmet
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Cole Kmet by 0.3 projected points (4.8 vs 4.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Cole Kmet faces PHI, the 19th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces KC, the 32nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Darren Waller ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Darren Waller: a clear but modest edge of 7.3 points of value over replacement (-88.0 vs -95.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Darren WallerMIA | Cole KmetCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | KC | PHI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 4.5 | 4.8 | Kmet +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #32 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 90.4 | 83.2 | Waller +7.3 pts |
| Points per game | 5.3 | 4.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.0 | -95.3 | Waller +7.3 |
| Overall rank | #169 | #196 | Waller by 27 |
| Position rank | TE25 | TE28 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 |
Should I start Darren Waller or Cole Kmet in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Cole Kmet by 0.3 projected points (4.8 vs 4.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Darren Waller or Cole Kmet in 2026 fantasy football?
Darren Waller. He projects 90.4 fantasy points with -88.0 value over replacement, vs 83.2 points and -95.3 for Cole Kmet (TE, PPR).