Terrance Ferguson vs Michael Mayer
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Terrance Ferguson by 0.5 projected points (5.2 vs 4.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Terrance Ferguson faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Michael Mayer faces NE, the 18th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Terrance Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 8.1 points of value over replacement (-89.7 vs -97.8).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Terrance Ferguson carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Terrance FergusonLAR | Michael MayerLVR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | BUF | NE | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 5.2 | 4.7 | Ferguson +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #15 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 88.7 | 80.6 | Ferguson +8.1 pts |
| Points per game | 5.2 | 4.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -89.7 | -97.8 | Ferguson +8.1 |
| Overall rank | #169 | #198 | Ferguson by 29 |
| Position rank | TE25 | TE28 | |
| Market ADP | 167.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | IR | None |
Should I start Terrance Ferguson or Michael Mayer in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Terrance Ferguson by 0.5 projected points (5.2 vs 4.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Terrance Ferguson or Michael Mayer in 2026 fantasy football?
Terrance Ferguson. He projects 88.7 fantasy points with -89.7 value over replacement, vs 80.6 points and -97.8 for Michael Mayer (TE, PPR).