Michael Penix vs Marcus Mariota
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Penix by 0.4 projected points (11.8 vs 11.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Michael Penix faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Marcus Mariota faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Michael Penix, and it isn't close: 17.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-58.3 vs -75.5).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Michael PenixATL | Marcus MariotaWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NO | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.8 | 11.4 | Penix +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 210.5 | 193.3 | Penix +17.2 pts |
| Points per game | 12.4 | 11.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -58.3 | -75.5 | Penix +17.2 |
| Overall rank | #134 | #160 | Penix by 26 |
| Position rank | QB28 | QB30 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Michael Penix or Marcus Mariota in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Penix by 0.4 projected points (11.8 vs 11.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Penix or Marcus Mariota in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Penix. He projects 210.5 fantasy points with -58.3 value over replacement, vs 193.3 points and -75.5 for Marcus Mariota (QB, PPR).