Cam Ward vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Michael Penix this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (11.8 vs 10.2).
Michael Penix faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Cam Ward faces BAL, the 32nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Cam Ward ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Cam Ward by 2.2 points of value over replacement (-56.0 vs -58.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Cam WardTEN | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BAL | NO | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 10.2 | 11.8 | Penix +1.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #32 | #25 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 212.7 | 210.5 | Ward +2.2 pts |
| Points per game | 12.5 | 12.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -56.0 | -58.3 | Ward +2.2 |
| Overall rank | #132 | #134 | Ward by 2 |
| Position rank | QB27 | QB28 | |
| Market ADP | 173.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 15 | - | |
| Bye week | 9 | 11 |
Should I start Cam Ward or Michael Penix in Week 4?
Start Michael Penix this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.6 projected points (11.8 vs 10.2).
Should I draft Cam Ward or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Cam Ward. He projects 212.7 fantasy points with -56.0 value over replacement, vs 210.5 points and -58.3 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.