Baker Mayfield vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 0.1 projected points (11.9 vs 11.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Michael Penix faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Baker Mayfield: a clear but modest edge of 13.6 points of value over replacement (-44.7 vs -58.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | GB | NO | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.9 | 11.8 | Mayfield +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #30 | #25 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 224.0 | 210.5 | Mayfield +13.6 pts |
| Points per game | 13.2 | 12.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -44.7 | -58.3 | Mayfield +13.6 |
| Overall rank | #120 | #134 | Mayfield by 14 |
| Position rank | QB26 | QB28 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or Michael Penix in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 0.1 projected points (11.9 vs 11.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 224.0 fantasy points with -44.7 value over replacement, vs 210.5 points and -58.3 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR).