Drake Maye vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Drake Maye this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (13.2 vs 11.9).
Drake Maye faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.9 points of value over replacement (-43.9 vs -44.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Drake Maye goes first at ADP 51.8 vs 130.9 for Baker Mayfield.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Drake MayeNWE | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BUF | GB | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.2 | 11.9 | Maye +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #15 | #30 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 224.9 | 224.0 | Maye +0.9 pts |
| Points per game | 13.2 | 13.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -43.9 | -44.7 | Maye +0.9 |
| Overall rank | #118 | #120 | Maye by 2 |
| Position rank | QB25 | QB26 | |
| Market ADP | 51.8 | 130.9 | Mayfield +79.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Drake Maye or Baker Mayfield in Week 4?
Start Drake Maye this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (13.2 vs 11.9).
Should I draft Drake Maye or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Drake Maye. He projects 224.9 fantasy points with -43.9 value over replacement, vs 224.0 points and -44.7 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.