Daniel Jones vs Drake Maye
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Daniel Jones by 0.1 projected points (13.3 vs 13.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Daniel Jones faces WAS, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Drake Maye faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Daniel Jones: a clear but modest edge of 10.7 points of value over replacement (-33.2 vs -43.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Drake Maye first (ADP 51.8 vs 160.6). If the model is right, Daniel Jones is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Daniel JonesIND | Drake MayeNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | WAS | BUF | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.3 | 13.2 | Jones +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #22 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.6 | 224.9 | Jones +10.7 pts |
| Points per game | 13.9 | 13.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -33.2 | -43.9 | Jones +10.7 |
| Overall rank | #108 | #118 | Jones by 10 |
| Position rank | QB23 | QB25 | |
| Market ADP | 160.6 | 51.8 | Jones +108.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 11 |
Should I start Daniel Jones or Drake Maye in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Daniel Jones by 0.1 projected points (13.3 vs 13.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Daniel Jones or Drake Maye in 2026 fantasy football?
Daniel Jones. He projects 235.6 fantasy points with -33.2 value over replacement, vs 224.9 points and -43.9 for Drake Maye (QB, PPR).