Aaron Rodgers vs Daniel Jones
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.4 projected points (13.8 vs 13.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Aaron Rodgers faces CLE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Daniel Jones faces WAS, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Aaron Rodgers: a clear but modest edge of 5.1 points of value over replacement (-28.0 vs -33.2).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Daniel Jones first (ADP 160.6 vs 183.1). If the model is right, Aaron Rodgers is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Daniel JonesIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CLE | WAS | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.8 | 13.3 | Rodgers +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #19 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 240.7 | 235.6 | Rodgers +5.1 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 13.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.0 | -33.2 | Rodgers +5.1 |
| Overall rank | #100 | #108 | Rodgers by 8 |
| Position rank | QB21 | QB23 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | 160.6 | Rodgers +22.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 13 |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Daniel Jones in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.4 projected points (13.8 vs 13.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Daniel Jones in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 240.7 fantasy points with -28.0 value over replacement, vs 235.6 points and -33.2 for Daniel Jones (QB, PPR).