Lamar Jackson vs Aaron Rodgers
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (16.0 vs 13.8).
Lamar Jackson faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces CLE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Lamar Jackson by 0.7 points of value over replacement (-27.4 vs -28.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Lamar Jackson goes first at ADP 54.6 vs 183.1 for Aaron Rodgers.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Lamar JacksonBAL | Aaron RodgersPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | TEN | CLE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 16.0 | 13.8 | Jackson +2.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #2 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 241.4 | 240.7 | Jackson +0.7 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -27.4 | -28.0 | Jackson +0.7 |
| Overall rank | #98 | #100 | Jackson by 2 |
| Position rank | QB20 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | 54.6 | 183.1 | Rodgers +128.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 16 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 9 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers in Week 4?
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.3 projected points (16.0 vs 13.8).
Should I draft Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers in 2026 fantasy football?
Lamar Jackson. He projects 241.4 fantasy points with -27.4 value over replacement, vs 240.7 points and -28.0 for Aaron Rodgers (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.