Sam Darnold vs Lamar Jackson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (16.0 vs 14.9).
Lamar Jackson faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Sam Darnold faces LAC, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Sam Darnold ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.8 points of value over replacement (-26.5 vs -27.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Lamar Jackson first (ADP 54.6 vs 144.4). If the model is right, Sam Darnold is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Sam DarnoldSEA | Lamar JacksonBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LAC | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.9 | 16.0 | Jackson +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #8 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 242.2 | 241.4 | Darnold +0.8 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -26.5 | -27.4 | Darnold +0.8 |
| Overall rank | #97 | #98 | Darnold by 1 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | 144.4 | 54.6 | Darnold +89.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Sam Darnold or Lamar Jackson in Week 4?
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (16.0 vs 14.9).
Should I draft Sam Darnold or Lamar Jackson in 2026 fantasy football?
Sam Darnold. He projects 242.2 fantasy points with -26.5 value over replacement, vs 241.4 points and -27.4 for Lamar Jackson (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.