Geno Smith vs Sam Darnold
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.8 projected points (14.9 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Sam Darnold faces LAC, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Geno Smith ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 3.3 points of value over replacement (-23.3 vs -26.5), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Geno SmithNYJ | Sam DarnoldSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CHI | LAC | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.1 | 14.9 | Darnold +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 245.5 | 242.2 | Smith +3.3 pts |
| Points per game | 14.4 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -23.3 | -26.5 | Smith +3.3 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #97 | Smith by 5 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | - | 144.4 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 11 |
Should I start Geno Smith or Sam Darnold in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.8 projected points (14.9 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Geno Smith or Sam Darnold in 2026 fantasy football?
Geno Smith. He projects 245.5 fantasy points with -23.3 value over replacement, vs 242.2 points and -26.5 for Sam Darnold (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.