Jalen Hurts vs Geno Smith
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jalen Hurts by 0.2 projected points (14.3 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jalen Hurts faces LA, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jalen Hurts: a clear but modest edge of 7.3 points of value over replacement (-16.0 vs -23.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Geno SmithNYJ | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LA | CHI | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.3 | 14.1 | Hurts +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #23 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 252.8 | 245.5 | Hurts +7.3 pts |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 14.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -16.0 | -23.3 | Hurts +7.3 |
| Overall rank | #82 | #92 | Hurts by 10 |
| Position rank | QB15 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 75.9 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 13 |
Should I start Jalen Hurts or Geno Smith in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jalen Hurts by 0.2 projected points (14.3 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Geno Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
Jalen Hurts. He projects 252.8 fantasy points with -16.0 value over replacement, vs 245.5 points and -23.3 for Geno Smith (QB, PPR).