Bo Nix vs Jalen Hurts
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.8 projected points (15.0 vs 14.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Bo Nix faces SF, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jalen Hurts faces LA, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 3.8 points of value over replacement (-12.2 vs -16.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jalen Hurts first (ADP 75.9 vs 109.6). If the model is right, Bo Nix is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Bo NixDEN | Jalen HurtsPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SF | LA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 15.0 | 14.3 | Nix +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #23 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 256.5 | 252.8 | Nix +3.8 pts |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 14.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -12.2 | -16.0 | Nix +3.8 |
| Overall rank | #78 | #82 | Nix by 4 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB15 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 75.9 | Nix +33.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 10 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Jalen Hurts in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.8 projected points (15.0 vs 14.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bo Nix or Jalen Hurts in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 256.5 fantasy points with -12.2 value over replacement, vs 252.8 points and -16.0 for Jalen Hurts (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.