Bo Nix vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 0.2 projected points (15.3 vs 15.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
C.J. Stroud faces DAL, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces SF, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Bo Nix ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bo Nix: a clear but modest edge of 6.3 points of value over replacement (-12.2 vs -18.5).
The draft market agrees: Bo Nix goes first at ADP 109.6 vs 155.7 for C.J. Stroud.
| Bo NixDEN | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SF | DAL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 15.0 | 15.3 | Stroud +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 256.5 | 250.2 | Nix +6.3 pts |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 14.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -12.2 | -18.5 | Nix +6.3 |
| Overall rank | #78 | #87 | Nix by 9 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 155.7 | Stroud +46.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 |
Should I start Bo Nix or C.J. Stroud in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 0.2 projected points (15.3 vs 15.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bo Nix or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 256.5 fantasy points with -12.2 value over replacement, vs 250.2 points and -18.5 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).