Bo Nix vs Caleb Williams
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 1.0 projected points (15.0 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Bo Nix faces SF, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Bo Nix: a clear but modest edge of 8.9 points of value over replacement (-12.2 vs -21.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Caleb Williams first (ADP 86.0 vs 109.6). If the model is right, Bo Nix is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Bo NixDEN | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SF | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 15.0 | 14.1 | Nix +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #16 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 256.5 | 247.7 | Nix +8.9 pts |
| Points per game | 15.1 | 14.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -12.2 | -21.1 | Nix +8.9 |
| Overall rank | #78 | #90 | Nix by 12 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | 86.0 | Nix +23.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Doubtful |
Should I start Bo Nix or Caleb Williams in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 1.0 projected points (15.0 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bo Nix or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 256.5 fantasy points with -12.2 value over replacement, vs 247.7 points and -21.1 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).