Kirk Cousins vs Bo Nix
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.5 projected points (15.0 vs 14.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Bo Nix faces SF, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kirk Cousins faces KC, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Kirk Cousins ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kirk Cousins: a clear but modest edge of 11.2 points of value over replacement (-1.0 vs -12.2).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Kirk CousinsLVR | Bo NixDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | KC | SF | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.6 | 15.0 | Nix +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 267.7 | 256.5 | Cousins +11.2 pts |
| Points per game | 15.7 | 15.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -1.0 | -12.2 | Cousins +11.2 |
| Overall rank | #73 | #78 | Cousins by 5 |
| Position rank | QB13 | QB14 | |
| Market ADP | - | 109.6 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 10 |
Should I start Kirk Cousins or Bo Nix in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.5 projected points (15.0 vs 14.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kirk Cousins or Bo Nix in 2026 fantasy football?
Kirk Cousins. He projects 267.7 fantasy points with -1.0 value over replacement, vs 256.5 points and -12.2 for Bo Nix (QB, PPR).