Joe Burrow vs Kirk Cousins
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 3.5 projected points separate them (18.1 vs 14.6).
Joe Burrow faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kirk Cousins faces KC, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow: a clear but modest edge of 9.4 points of value over replacement (8.3 vs -1.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Kirk CousinsLVR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | KC | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 18.1 | 14.6 | Burrow +3.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #28 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 277.1 | 267.7 | Burrow +9.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.3 | 15.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 8.3 | -1.0 | Burrow +9.4 |
| Overall rank | #62 | #73 | Burrow by 11 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB13 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 13 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Kirk Cousins in Week 4?
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 3.5 projected points separate them (18.1 vs 14.6).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Kirk Cousins in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 277.1 fantasy points with 8.3 value over replacement, vs 267.7 points and -1.0 for Kirk Cousins (QB, PPR).