Trevor Lawrence vs Joe Burrow
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Joe Burrow by 0.9 projected points (18.1 vs 17.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Joe Burrow faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces CIN, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Trevor Lawrence ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Trevor Lawrence: a clear but modest edge of 5.4 points of value over replacement (13.8 vs 8.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Joe Burrow first (ADP 54.5 vs 91.1). If the model is right, Trevor Lawrence is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Joe BurrowCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CIN | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 17.2 | 18.1 | Burrow +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #11 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 282.5 | 277.1 | Lawrence +5.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.6 | 16.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 13.8 | 8.3 | Lawrence +5.4 |
| Overall rank | #56 | #62 | Lawrence by 6 |
| Position rank | QB10 | QB11 | |
| Market ADP | 91.1 | 54.5 | Lawrence +36.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 6 |
Should I start Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Joe Burrow by 0.9 projected points (18.1 vs 17.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 282.5 fantasy points with 13.8 value over replacement, vs 277.1 points and 8.3 for Joe Burrow (QB, PPR).