Joe Burrow vs Bo Nix
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 3.1 projected points separate them (18.1 vs 15.0).
Joe Burrow faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces SF, the 16th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 20.6 points of value over replacement separate them (8.3 vs -12.2).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 109.6 for Bo Nix.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Bo NixDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | SF | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 18.1 | 15.0 | Burrow +3.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 277.1 | 256.5 | Burrow +20.6 pts |
| Points per game | 16.3 | 15.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 8.3 | -12.2 | Burrow +20.6 |
| Overall rank | #62 | #78 | Burrow by 16 |
| Position rank | QB11 | QB14 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 109.6 | Nix +55.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Bo Nix in Week 4?
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 3.1 projected points separate them (18.1 vs 15.0).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Bo Nix in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 277.1 fantasy points with 8.3 value over replacement, vs 256.5 points and -12.2 for Bo Nix (QB, PPR).