Kirk Cousins vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 0.7 projected points (15.3 vs 14.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
C.J. Stroud faces DAL, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kirk Cousins faces KC, the 28th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Kirk Cousins ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kirk Cousins, and it isn't close: 17.5 points of value over replacement separate them (-1.0 vs -18.5).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Kirk CousinsLVR | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | KC | DAL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.6 | 15.3 | Stroud +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #28 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 267.7 | 250.2 | Cousins +17.5 pts |
| Points per game | 15.7 | 14.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -1.0 | -18.5 | Cousins +17.5 |
| Overall rank | #73 | #87 | Cousins by 14 |
| Position rank | QB13 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | - | 155.7 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 8 |
Should I start Kirk Cousins or C.J. Stroud in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 0.7 projected points (15.3 vs 14.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kirk Cousins or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Kirk Cousins. He projects 267.7 fantasy points with -1.0 value over replacement, vs 250.2 points and -18.5 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).