C.J. Stroud vs Geno Smith
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (15.3 vs 14.1).
C.J. Stroud faces DAL, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 4.7 points of value over replacement (-18.5 vs -23.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Geno SmithNYJ | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | DAL | CHI | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 15.3 | 14.1 | Stroud +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 250.2 | 245.5 | Stroud +4.7 pts |
| Points per game | 14.7 | 14.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -18.5 | -23.3 | Stroud +4.7 |
| Overall rank | #87 | #92 | Stroud by 5 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | - | |
| Bye week | 8 | 13 |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Geno Smith in Week 4?
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (15.3 vs 14.1).
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Geno Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 250.2 fantasy points with -18.5 value over replacement, vs 245.5 points and -23.3 for Geno Smith (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.