C.J. Stroud vs Caleb Williams
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (15.3 vs 14.1).
C.J. Stroud faces DAL, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 2.5 points of value over replacement (-18.5 vs -21.1), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Caleb Williams first (ADP 86.0 vs 155.7). If the model is right, C.J. Stroud is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | DAL | NYJ | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 15.3 | 14.1 | Stroud +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 250.2 | 247.7 | Stroud +2.5 pts |
| Points per game | 14.7 | 14.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -18.5 | -21.1 | Stroud +2.5 |
| Overall rank | #87 | #90 | Stroud by 3 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | 86.0 | Stroud +69.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Doubtful |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Caleb Williams in Week 4?
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (15.3 vs 14.1).
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 250.2 fantasy points with -18.5 value over replacement, vs 247.7 points and -21.1 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.