C.J. Stroud vs Sam Darnold
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 2.2 points of value over replacement (-73.6 vs -75.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Sam Darnold first (ADP 143.4 vs 158.2). If the model is right, C.J. Stroud is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Sam DarnoldSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 178.2 | 176.0 | Stroud +2.2 pts |
| Points per game | 10.5 | 10.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -73.6 | -75.8 | Stroud +2.2 |
| Overall rank | #170 | #171 | Stroud by 1 |
| Position rank | QB22 | QB23 | |
| Market ADP | 158.2 | 143.4 | Stroud +14.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 11 |
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Sam Darnold in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 178.2 fantasy points with -73.6 value over replacement, vs 176.0 points and -75.8 for Sam Darnold (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.